Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations
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چکیده
The ground motion attenuation relations have been proposed on an empirical basis and widely been used for ground motion prediction in convenient and efficient way. The accuracy of the predictions, however, is not so high given an earthquake magnitude and distance, the uncertainty of the relations has, say, 0.5 or more in a natural logarithmic standard deviation, which significantly governs the tail of the seismic hazard curve in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). After the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan, many earthquake ground motion observations have been deployed throughout the country. They are called K-NET or KiKnet, current seismograph observation networks in Japan. Since the ample records have been accumulated in many observatories in the past, these data should be made use of for higher accurate prediction. Furthermore, earthquake ground motion observations are often made in special locations such as the sites of nuclear power plants in Japan. These observed records are very useful for constructing a site-specific attenuation relation. To do this, a Bayesian approach can be effectively utilized to update an existing attenuation relation with observed records for a specific site. The paper demonstrates how to apply the approach and comparison of the updated results. It is worthwhile to show how the accuracy of the relation changes.
منابع مشابه
Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations Proceedings of the International Workshop Building the New Hra: Errors of Commission from Research to Application
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